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柴静所引的中科院论文,关于PM2.5与死亡率

已有 1466 次阅读2015-3-14 08:04 |个人分类:网上争论|系统分类:原创博文 | 宽屏 请点击显示宽屏,再点击恢复窄屏 | 动漫全图 如只见部分动漫,请点击显示全图,再点击恢复窄图


另一版本:http://vdisk.weibo.com/s/uGyVehgSy2e-7?from=page_100505_profile&wvr=6

Fig. 6 depicts the interannual variability of the mass concentration of PM2.5 and the estimated percent increase for PM2.5 in daily mortality from 2005 to 2009. It can be seen that the PM2.5 levels generally declines in recent years in Beijing, whereas the relative risk shows different change trends. Overall, the level of the estimated percentage increase assumes an escalating tendency during the study period, in addition to having a low value in 2008 because strict atmospheric pollution control measures were implemented in Beijinge-Tianjine-Hebei region before the Olympics games (Xin et al., 2010, 2012). But it bounced off the bottom and started a new uptrend after 2008. The values which show the largest effect in 2009, rose sharply again after the Beijing Olympics. Under this serious current situation, a 10 mg m3 increase of PM2.5 corresponded to more than 1.00% increase of non-accidental mortality, respiratory mortality, and circulatory mortality.


Fig. 6. The inter-annual variability of the estimated percent increases in daily mortality of PM2.5 in recent years. These curves were fitted by statistical regression equations. Column means the annual average concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing. Abbreviations: NAM, non-accidental mortality; RM, respiratory mortality; CM, circulatory mortality.

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