英国智库：中国军力全球化开始挑战美国
本帖最后由 华盛顿人 于 2019-4-26 10:57 编辑乔纳森·马库斯（Jonathan Marcus） BBC外交事务记者2018年 2月 13日分享平台 微博
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/D79F/production/_99999155_reuters1.jpg图片版权REUTERSImage caption专家说中国正研发用于出口的武器，包括一些对西方军工厂来说过份敏感的武器。
英国智库发表报告称，中国军事现代化的速度，远超专家原先预期。
国际战略研究所（International Institute for Strategic Studies，IISS）的专家表示，中国现在逐渐取代俄罗斯，成为美国制定武装力量标准的指标，特别是在中国致力追求现代化的空军和海军方面。在欧洲，美军仍然根据俄罗斯的实力来制定威胁的标准。
自1959年起，IISS 每年都会公布《军事平衡》，这是一份评估各国军事能力及国防开支的年度报告。《军事平衡》亦反映了上述趋势。
众所周知，中国解放军经历了一段时间的改革，但现在已经达到或非常接近一个重要水平，让中国成为美国的同行对手。
国际战略研究所本周稍后将会发布新一年的《军事平衡》。我尝试从这些专家口中得知这趋势的详细资料，并就今年的统计数据与图片，提供有力的解释。
各國2016年軍事開支
軍事預算比較
美元（十億）
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
[*]
[*]來源：斯德哥爾摩國際和平研究所
中国挑战西方军事实力
中国的发展与技术能力令人瞩目，从超远程常规弹道导弹至“第五代战斗机”，以及去年中国首艘055型大型导弹驱逐舰下水，这种能力会让任何北约海军停下来思量一下。
中国正建造第二艘国产航母，并完善其军事指挥架构，由真正的联合总部去统筹各个部门。在火炮、空中防卫、地面作战等方面，中国均有一些武器超越美军在这些领域的有效配置。
1990年代末，中国开始从俄罗斯引入大量先进技术。中国海军大举投资建造船舰和潜艇。https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/17CDB/production/_95799479_7e504bf9-2866-4d6b-8120-d923063b464e.jpg图片版权XINHUA NEWS AGENCYImage caption中国庆祝第一艘国产航母下水。
在空中，中国新的J-20单座位战机已经服役。在贸易上，这被称为“第五代战斗机”，意思它包含了隐形技术、超音速飞行速度和高度综合电子设备。
国际战略研究所专家对此抱怀疑态度，他们认为中国空军“仍需要发展适合的策略去操控可侦测性较低的战机，并制定出一套规则，去混合第五代以及第四代的战机”。
“中国有明显进步，”专家们说：“你可以在这些战机中加入空对空导弹，这些导弹能媲美西方产品的质量。”
本年度的《军事平衡》花了足足一个章节，去讲述中国和俄罗斯的空中发射武器，专家们认为这是对西方霸主地位的重要考验。
美国和盟友在冷战末期起开展的多次空中战役中，损失战机的数量十分少，但国际战略研究所认为，其盟主地位或逐渐被挑战。举例说，中国正在研制一种非常远程的空对空导弹，目标针对加油机、或是指挥控制机，这些战机在空战中是重要但脆弱的一部分。
《军事平衡》作者提出，到2020年，中国的空对空导弹技术，“将极可能迫使美国及其地区盟友，不单要重新审视其战术、技术及程序，亦要审视它们空中作战研究计划的方向”。
国际战略研究所认为，相对地，中国军队的地面军队现代化进程稍为落后，目前仅约半设备可以在现代战斗中使用。
但这方面同样有所进展。中国设下2020年的目标，希望达至“机械化”和“讯息化”。中国所指的“讯息化”具体内容是甚么，至今仍然不太清楚，但讯息在战事中愈趋重要，中国正在观察，并在个别例子中尝试应用。
中国许多新型武器系统都是度身订造，因为它有一个明确的战略目标，务求在爆发冲突时，可以把美国军力推得愈远愈好，最好远至太平洋深处。这种军事策略称作“反介入区域阻绝”（anti-access area denial，A2AD）。这解释了为何中国专注于发展远程空军海军系统，因为这可以威胁美国海军航母战斗群。
中国出口军备的野心
中国已经加入成为“军事超级联赛”的参赛队伍，但中国在国际军事影响力并不止于此。中国正在推行一项野心勃勃的军事出口策略。一般而言，中国乐意出售先进技术，要不一些国家本身没有这种技术，要不拥有这些技术的国家，只愿售予盟友而把其他国家拒诸门外。
军用无人机市场是一个例子，这是一种发展迅速的技术，但同时令和平与战争的界线变得含糊不清。美国作为这领域的领导者，大多拒绝出售精密的军事无人机，仅把有限的数量，出口予英国等亲密的北约盟友。法国亦正在使用美国提供的收割者无人机（又名死神无人机），并计划把无人机军事化。https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/98C6/production/_100001193_52716898-503a-4543-bc2e-998d26a07f4f.jpg
图片版权AFPImage caption中国出售的军用无人机。
中国则不受此限，在军事展览中，中国企业展示出无数令人惊叹、可配备弹药的军用无人机。《军事平衡》称，中国向多个国家出售军用无人机，包括埃及、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、缅甸等。
美国不愿意销售技术，结果为中国开辟了市场，可说是美国始料不及。毫无疑问，这种武器愈来愈普遍，许多国家原本或用民用无人机作情报收集用途，现在也会积极探索无人机军事化的可能性。
美国等西方军备出口商视中国为日益渐长的商业威胁，过去十年，中国早已在市场占据重要席位，提供高品质的军备，军用无人机则是一个例证，显示中国愿意进入一些被西方制造商及政府视为过份敏感的市场领域。
IISS的专家告诉我，中国在这些交易中近乎完胜，买家可以用50%价钱，从中国军厂中买入75%的西方现有技术，在商业角度来说十分化算。中国地面战相关出口则没有那么令人赞叹，他们仍要与俄罗斯、乌克兰等争夺客户，但2014年乌克兰因无法准时向泰国交付坦克车，结果泰国向中国买入VT4主战坦克，去年，泰国希望再向中国买更多军备。https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/897F/production/_99999153_thaiarmy.jpg
图片版权EPAImage caption泰国今年1月测试新购的中国制VT4主战坦克。
国际战略研究所专家还表示，中国亦会为个别市场研制度身订造的武器，例如会向非洲国家提供重量较轻的新型坦克，以应付当地的道路和设施，其他国家所推销的重型坦克，大多难以适应该区的环境。
中国在精密武器出口上担当愈趋重要的角色，令许多国家感到忧虑，这种忧虑不限于中国的近邻。西方空军享受了三十多年的霸主地位，但中国现在能够提供武器，实行“反介入”策略，其他国家很容易跟随。
一个西方欧洲国家或许不会与中国爆发冲突，但其他人或国家，或会使用中国制精密武器系统，其中一名国际战略研究所专家说：“你原本以为，介入海外事务或许是进入低风险环境，这个想法或许要再作评估。”
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